Widespread rain has slowed corn planting this spring, especially in the powerhouse states of the Midwest, says the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report. While some predict the bad weather will push more land into soybeans, economist Todd Hubbs of the University of Illinois cautions that it is difficult to form expectations for corn acreage so early in the season.
The USDA forecasts that soybean plantings will reach a record 89.5 million acres this year, up 6 million acres from last year, mostly at the expense of corn and other feed grains. Writing at farmdoc Daily, Hubbs says the continued rain in the Farm Belt “merits investigation into the possibilities associated with late planting on acreage decisions.” Still, there are few conclusions to be drawn from looking at the past 20 years of planting, for either corn or soybeans.
In the six years when corn planting ran the latest, acreage exceeded expectations twice and fell short four times—hardly a reliable indicator. For his analysis, Hubbs used May 20 as the date when corn planting is late and May 30 for soybeans, because yields suffer after those dates. “Producers possess the ability to plant very quickly, and still have more than a month to plant corn and six weeks to plant soybeans before planting is considered late by our definition,” he wrote.
As of Sunday, farmers had planted 6 percent of U.S. corn acreage, compared with the five-year average of 9 percent and 12 percent at this point a year ago, according to the Crop Progress report. Iowa and Illinois, the two leading corn states, have planted half of their usual acreage for mid-April.