The consensus among government weather forecasters “unanimously favors a strong El Niño” weather pattern that peaks in late fall or early winter. “Overall, there is a 95 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016,” said the National Weather Service. Caused by warmer-than-usual water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the weather pattern is forecast to bring wetter-than-usual weather to the mid-Atlantic Coast, the Southeast and the southern one-third of the continental United States while reducing the likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at Stanford U, told the Los Angeles Times, “The present El Niño is already one of the strongest on record and is expected to strengthen further through the late fall or early winter months. At this juncture, the likeliest outcome for California is a wetter-than-average winter.” California is in the fourth year of drought, so precipitation could boost water supplies for the coming months. Said the Times, “It would take years of above-average rain and snow to end the drought and refill empty reservoirs and wells, experts say.”