China can satisfy two objectives — filling a huge gap in its meat supply and complying with the “phase one” trade agreement with the United States — by buying American-grown pork, say two Iowa State University economists. “While soybeans were the largest portion of previous agricultural sales to China, we expect meat, especially pork, to take the leading spots in our future sales to China,” write Chad Hart and Lee Schulz in the winter issue of Agricultural Policy Review.
“Thus, the product mix will shift, moving to more value-added products, which helps China hit the dollar value targets” in the agreement, say the economists. “A large concern is what will happen to our other markets — this deal will likely crowd some of them out.” The White House says China is obliged to buy $40 billion a year worth of U.S. food, agricultural, and seafood products, nearly three times more than the USDA now projects for farm exports to China this year.
China is already buying sizable amounts of U.S. pork this year, according to the USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report. Since the start of the year, 112,000 tonnes of pork were shipped to China and 208,900 tonnes were on the books for shipment. A year ago, when the trade war was intense, only 22,400 tonnes of U.S. pork had been shipped and 16,700 tonnes were awaiting shipment after the first eight weeks of the year. Exporters reported sales of 7,200 tonnes of pork in the week ending Feb. 20 for delivery to China, said the USDA.