Hog farmers, long overshadowed by cattle producers, will expand production faster than the cattle industry, resulting in Americans eating more pork than beef in 2017, says the USDA in its long-term agricultural baseline. The department released the complete 97-page baseline on Tuesday; a trimmed-down version that covered crop projections was released in December. The USDA pegs pork consumption at 48.8 pounds per person in 2017 compared to 48.5 pounds of beef. Consumption would be equal at 49.1 pounds of both beef and pork in 2018, and then beef would regain its usual rank as the more widely consumed red meat.
“Per-capita pork consumption is projected to rise sharply in 2015-16 as production gains reflect producer response to lower feed costs and a rebound from 2014 production that was reduced by PEDv (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus),” said the USDA, while beef consumption rates are expected to fall for the next couple of years. Beef numbers fell to historically low levels, but there were signs at the end fo 2014 that herd expansion was beginning. It takes six to 18 months for an expansion to put more beef into stores and restaurants.