Low oil prices are translating into low prices for polyester fiber, especially in China, which produces nearly three-fourths of the world’s polyester, says the International Cotton Advisory Committee. “The continuing drop in polyester prices cuts into cotton’s market share, particularly in China where polyester has been favored over cotton in recent seasons,” says the intergovernmental body. “Cotton consumption in China is forecast down 5 percent to 7.1 million tonnes in 2015/16, although it remains the world’s largest consumer of cotton.”
The ICAC lowered its forecast of world cotton consumption during the current marketing year by 1 percent, to 24.1 million tonnes.
For consumers, low polyester prices are likely to mean more apparel with artificial fibers and smaller cotton content.
“Vietnam may overtake China as the largest importer of cotton in 2015/16,” said the ICAC in a monthly statement. It forecasts imports buy Vietman of 1.1 million tonnes, up 17 percent from the previous season. China, meanwhile, imports 1.08 million tonnes, a drop of 40 percent in one year that reflects lower prices for homegrown cotton and lower mill use. Bangladesh could tie China as an importer. “Consumption in both Vietnam and Bangladesh is increasing steadily due to lower production costs, but both produce little cotton and instead must rely on imports to meet demand,” says ICAC.