For the second year in a row, farmers will plant a record amount of land to soybeans, according to polls of analysts ahead of the annual Prospective Plantings report due on Tuesday. The USDA report is based on a survey of 80,000 operators and the first broad-scale sample of farmers’ crop plans for the year. Polls by Reuters and Bloomberg show analysts expect soybean plantings of 85.9 million acres, up 2.6 percent from last year’s record 83.7 million acres. Aided by record yields, the 2014 crop was a record 3.969 billion bushels.
If plantings are as large as expected, this year’s crop could be a record 4 billion bushels, based on the USDA’s projected yield and abandonment rates. A mammoth crop would weigh on market prices.
Soybean plantings would increase by 2.2 million acres at the expense of wheat, corn and cotton, the three other widely planted crops, according to analysts. Corn and wheat sowings would fall lby 2 percent apiece and cotton by 11 percent, for a combined decrease of 3.9 million acres. The so-called minor feed grains – sorghum, barley and oats – are all expected to expand. Sorghum, now selling at a premium to corn thanks to strong demand by China, would gain 1 million acres, or 14 percent, say the Reuters and Bloomberg surveys. Barley plantings would rise by 200,000 acres and oats by 100,000 acres.
Also on Tuesday, the USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Traders expect large supplies of wheat, corn and soybeans. The Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will clarify the commodity outlook.