A political rule of thumb is that rural America is socially and fiscally conservative, so Republicans fare well in rural districts. “Voting trends in this vast area are far from monolithic,” say two University of New Hampshire researchers, who say there are important pockets of Democratic strength and they are gaining population. The sharpest contrast, say Dante Scala and Kenneth Johnson, is between rural counties dominated by agriculture and rural counties with a foundation of recreation, services and cultural amenities.
The 403 “old rural” counties dominated by agriculture have a population of 3 million people, 6 percent of the overall rural population, and support Republican presidential candidates. Population growth there is slow – up 5 percent in two decades. Population of the “new rural” recreation counties grew by 34 percent during that period and now is 8.2 million, or 16 percent of the 50 million people in rural America. “Residents of recreational counties tend to be wealthier, better educated and are significantly more likely to reflect liberal stances,” say Scala and Johnson.
The median performance in rural counties for Democratic candidates for president is under 40 percent – that’s where the rule of thumb originates – but in “new rural” counties, President Obama got 46 percent of the vote in 2008 and 41 percent in 2012. In “old rural” counties, he got 31 percent in 2008 and 26 percent in 2012.
“Both the population and political influence of recreational counties in national elections are likely to increase, given their appeal to the 70 million Baby Boomers who will retire in the next two decades,” said the UNH researchers. “The growth of this new rural economy has helped to create several new swing states that are now battlegrounds in presidential elections.” The researchers pointed to the Northeast, South and far West but did not name specific states in a summary of their work.
The Daily Yonder says Democrats lost four out of every five rural counties in the 2012 presidential election. And although they lost a lot of the “new rural” counties cited by Scala and Johnson, “the better showing in recreation counties may seem like good news, at least in the future,” it says.