Congress could just as easily extend the 2014 farm law, with add-ons to fix cotton and dairy subsidies, as pass a new farm bill this year, said Texas A&M economist James Richardson, a farm policy expert. The farm bill is at the back of the line for consideration by lawmakers who will soon give their attention to re-election rather than legislation, he said during a webinar.
“Let’s just say 50 percent,” Richardson responded when asked about the probability of an extension of the current law. Richardson, co-director of the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M, has provided economic advice to the congressional agriculture committees for decades.
“We have something coming up all the time, so that agriculture keeps getting put back. You remember last fall, we talked about a farm bill and then we had a tax law. Now we’ve got a budget crisis, a disaster bill, and everything else. Based on past experience … they would have to generate a complete farm bill by August 15, and I don’t see that happening,” said Richardson, who believes that election-year politics will come into play by early May.
The leaders of the Senate and House agriculture committees have said they want to complete the first round of action on the 2018 farm bill by spring as a way of ensuring the new law is in place by Oct. 1, when the current law expires. But they are off to a slow start. Congress was nearly a year and a half late in enacting the 2014 law.
Senate Agriculture Committee member Chuck Grassley told reporters this week that there is no budget target yet, which makes it difficult to work on the bill. Politico reported that House Agriculture Committee chairman Michael Conaway is on track to unveil his draft of the farm bill by March, and is waiting for a CBO estimate of its cost. That’s a couple of weeks later than the initial word of when the committee was to vote on the bill, according to a farm lobbyist. A Conaway aide did not immediately respond to a query about the chairman’s timeline.
Discussion of the new farm bill has centered as much on its schedule as its contents so far this year. Committee leaders have kept details to themselves. There is a consensus among farm groups and lawmakers that with no additional funding promised, the 2018 law should carry forward most of the terms of the 2014 law, with some modifications. The insurance-like cotton and dairy subsidies of the 2014 law have been a flop, according to producers, who are looking for substantial improvements. Grain farmers would like to iron out fluctuations in payment rates between adjoining counties. There are also calls for more support of land stewardship programs.
Provisions in a House-passed disaster bill, currently awaiting a Senate vote, would provide funding for cotton and dairy supports. “Farmers need that bill to pass,” said Richardson, to avert a farm bill squabble over funding.
“Now, an extension has some advantages,” said Richardson, because the farm sector is familiar with the mechanisms of the 2014 farm law. “And they have tweaks in there, like cotton and dairy, in the extension, and we don’t see any big fights between the commodity groups.” In addition, he said, grain and soybean growers should be given the option of switching between the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage subsidies in the legislation.
Richardson spoke as part of a University of Arkansas webinar series on food and agribusiness. Recent webinars are available here. Tim Walker, general manager of Horizon Ag, a rice breeding company, is scheduled to speak on a Jan. 25 webinar.