“Much has been made of a potential supply disruption impacting the availability of turkeys during the Thanksgiving holiday,” say economists John Newton and Todd Kuethe of U-Illinois, who rebut the idea at farmdoc daily. They say the monthly Cold Storage report shows turkey stockpiles are 5-percent larger than a year ago and other USDA reports show turkey production from January-April was up by 7 percent from the same point in 2014. The USDA has pared its forecast of turkey production this year by 50 million pounds; its forecast of nearly 6 billion pounds is a 4 percent increase from last year. “Combined, these reports point toward bird flu having only an isolated impact on turkey production in 2015,” write Newton and Kuethe.
The USDA will update its figures on egg production and the size of the layer flock later this month. Given the magnitude of the bird flu outbreak in egg layers, it is anticipated that the June USDA updates will reveal additional declines in egg production,” say Newton and Kuethe. At present, USDA forecasts a 1-percent drop in egg production. Wholesale prices for table eggs and for “breaker” eggs used by food processors soared during May.
“As a principal ingredient in many finished and prepared food products, higher egg prices are not easily passed along to the consumer and may result in higher costs of production for many food processors and restaurants. However, given current egg and feed prices, and the reinstatement of the Netherlands as an importer, the egg supply is expected to quickly adjust through imports and domestic production,” say the economists.
Grocery stores advertised Large white eggs Grade A or better at an average $1.59 a dozen, up 37 cents in three weeks, says the USDA’s weekly retail egg report. Grade AA Large white eggs were up sharply in price while Grade A Large white eggs were down from the previous week.
The USDA’s running tally of confirmed poultry outbreaks listed 217 cases with 46.7 million fowl either killed by the virus or culled to prevent it from the spreading. Iowa, the No. 1 egg state, was the hardest hit with 30.5 million birds affected.