The Great Plains and U.S. Southwest, the hub of U.S. wheat and cattle production, will face persistent drought during the second half of this century that will be “worse than anything seen” and due primarily to climate change caused by humans, says a study by the Earth Institute at Columbia University. The study presented a bleaker forecast than results from previous research. The Earth Institute team used data on climate for the past 2,000 years and applied 17 climate models to analyze the impact of rising temperatures, with and without controls on greenhouse gases.
Benjamin Cook, lead author of the study, said in a release, “The surprising thing to us was really how consistent the response was over these regions, nearly regardless of what model we used or what soil moisture metric we looked at….It all showed this really, really significant drying.”
“The results … are extremely unfavorable for the continuation of agricultural and water resource management as they are currently practiced in the Great Plains and southwestern United States,” said David Stahle,a University of Arkansas professor who was not involved in the study.