Independent Greg Orman is “at least a small favorite” to defeat third-term Sen Pat Roberts, a senior member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, in Kansas, says the Sabato’s Crystal Ball. It now rates the race as “leans Independent” vs the previous listing of toss-up. “As a smart operative told us this week, Kansas voters seem to have decided to fire Roberts, but they do not yet know if they want to hire Orman. This is one campaign that truly matters, and the outcome is thoroughly unpredictable,” says the political tip sheet.
“The electorate in Kansas is unusually fluid for such a competitive race,” says the analytical site FiveThirtyEight. It says an lower-than-usual portion of voters say they are firmly committed to a candidate.
If he wins, Orman would be the third independent in the Senate. The other two, Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, caucus with Democrats. Orman says he’ll choose the party where he would make the most impact.
House Agriculture member Dan Benishek, Michigan Republican, now rates as the likely winner over Army veteran Jerry Cannon, says the Crystal Ball, which previously listed the race as “leans Republican.” It says two campaign committees that support Democrats have scaled back activities in the district, which covers the Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan.