One in six of the Christmas trees harvested in Oregon is sold south of the border in Mexico, so state officials are keenly monitoring negotiations for the new NAFTA. If talks collapse or the United States withdraws from the free trade agreement, “it could result in Mexico imposing a retaliatory tariff on the U.S. and pivoting to Canadian suppliers,” says Bloomberg.
Helmuth Rogg of the Oregon state Department of Agriculture says the prospect of a 20 percent tariff on the trees, “I don’t think that would work for our growers.” In 2009, Mexico imposed a 20 percent duty on Christmas trees in a dispute over trucking regulations. A large Oregon grower says demand for his trees fell by 10 percent when that happened.
Tree farmers in Mexico estimate they will sell 700,000 Christmas trees this year, about the same as the import total for U.S.-grown trees, says Bloomberg. An offiicial in Mexico’s Agriculture Ministry says the nation expects there will be an agreement to update NAFTA but also says the current atmosphere surrounding the talks has prompted Mexican producers to grow more Christmas trees.