Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is not turning out the GOP base in farm country despite holding a 3-to-1 lead over Democratic Hillary Clinton in the countryside, says a poll by Aimpoint Research. Trump’s level of support, 55 percent, is 12 points lower than the large majority of farmers and ranchers who identify themselves as Republican.
The Trump campaign hopes to roll up large margins in rural areas, which often vote for conservatives, to offset Clinton’s advantage among metropolitan voters. The Aimpoint poll, conducted Oct. 5-18, around the time of the first debate between the candidates, found Trump leading Clinton, 55-18, with a margin of error of 3.6 percent.
Support for Trump was markedly lower than the 67 percent of respondents who identified themselves as Republican or leaning Republican.
By contract, Clinton held on to the Democratic base — 20 percent of the 750 respondents said they were Democrats and 18 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for her.
“In a sign of how fluid the race remains in farm country with less than two weeks until the election, 15 percent of respondents said they were undecided and 8 percent refused to” say who they support, said Agri-Pulse, the agricultural news company that commissioned the poll.
There was a wide gender gap in support for the candidates. Trump was backed by 59 percent of the men and 37 percent of women voters; Clinton was backed by 15 percent of the men and 33 percent of the women. “Reflecting the demographics of commercial agriculture,” two-thirds of the farmers and ranchers surveyed were over the age of 55 and 83 percent were male, said Agri-Pulse.
The farm population of 3.3 million is a sliver of the U.S. total of 325 million. Agriculture is a political power, however, because of its influence among processors and exporters and a history of targeting its goals narrowly and building alliances broadly.
Among all voters, Clinton leads Trump 46-39, according to Pollster’s poll-tracking model.
During the summer, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Democrats should act on the “unique opportunity” to make inroads with rural voters due to misgivings about Trump.
Asked by Aimpoint to name the most important issue facing the country in the presidential election, 19 percent of farmers and ranchers said economic growth, 16 percent said deficit reduction, 12 percent said moral values and 10 percent said climate change. In January, 19 percent told Aimpoint the top issue was national security with moral values, immigration/ag labor, and deficit reduction tied for second with scores at or near 14 percent apiece. Economic growth was fifth, with 9 percent.
Farmers and ranchers were more profoundly dissatisfied in the October poll about the direction the country was taking than in the January poll. Now, 86 percent say they are “somewhat” or “very dissatisfied,” compared to 75 percent in the earlier poll. Agri-Pulse editor Sara Wyant said the darkening mood could be tied to the sour farm economy. Farm income has fallen every year since 2013, when a six-year commodity boom collapsed.
Farmers are far more Republican than Americans in general. In recent polls, 36 percent of Americans said they were Democrats, 29 percent said they were Republican and 29 percent said they were independents. In the Aimpoint survey, 67 percent of farmers said they were Republican, 20 percent Democrat and 12 percent independent.