President Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw from NAFTA are scaring away customers for U.S. ag exports, farm leaders said at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce session on “The future of NAFTA.” Gordon Stoner of the National Association of Wheat Growers said the informal slogan of farm groups – “do no harm” – when negotiations began for the new NAFTA should be replaced with “do no more harm.”
Concern has grown in farm country because of hard-nosed statements by U.S. trade Representative Robert Lighthizer about White House determination to eliminate trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, who account for one-third of U.S. agricultural trade, and remarks by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross that agriculture would not be harmed without NAFTA. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said renegotiation of NAFTA could result in expanded access to Canada and Mexico or curtailed access to the U.S. market. “Which way will the administration go? I tell you very candidly, I don’t know,” Cruz said at the Chamber of Commerce.
Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts told reporters there was “a pervasive view” that the United States could declare withdrawal from NAFTA, which triggers a six-month waiting period, as a tactic to win concessions and keep NAFTA alive. “I think that is the wrong message. I think that is the wrong way to approach it. I think we have an awful lot of support in farm country to make that case.”
During a panel discussion, NAWG President Stoner, past president Randy Spronk of the National Pork Producers Council and Iowa State University economist Dermot Hayes said Mexico could impose stiff tariffs on U.S. goods if NAFTA is abandoned. The end result would be fewer sales because other countries would have more advantageous terms, they said. Mexico is the No. 1 market for U.S. wheat and a leading destination for corn, soy, pork and beef sales.
Farm groups began using the “do no harm” slogan as an expression of their top priority for the negotiations, which is continued duty-free access to Canada and Mexico. Mexico is buying wheat from Argentina for the first time as a hedge against disruption of U.S. sales.