President Trump could order $60 billion in tariffs on Chinese products before the end of the week, according to the Washington Post and other reports. U.S. agricultural leaders said they expect farmers will be hit if China retaliates. “Has there ever been a retaliation that didn’t include agriculture?” asked Chuck Conner, head of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives.
China is the top customer for U.S. farm exports as well as being the largest U.S. trade partner overall. The USDA estimates China will import $21.6 billion of U.S. farm goods in 2018, 16 percent of total exports. China buys two-thirds of the soybeans on the world market and the United States is the largest exporter. The Post said that soybeans and aircraft are the two largest U.S. exports to China.
President Zippy Duvall of the American Farm Bureau Federation said soybean growers faced a “scary” situation because China could easily target U.S. soybeans for retaliation. The farm sector also is worried about retaliation against farm exports because of Trump’s announcement of high tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum.
Soybeans are the second-most widely grown crop in the United States and, when soy oil and soymeal are included, the oilseed generates $24 billion in farm exports, or 18 percent of all agricultural sales overseas. Soy exports are forecast to dip by 5 percent during the current marketing year despite a record-setting U.S. harvest, ending four years in a row of record-large sales. The USDA says a large harvest in Brazil will crowd out U.S. sales somewhat.