The U.S. soybean crop is only an eyelash away from being the largest ever harvested, according to traders ahead of the USDA crop report set for release today. In surveys by Bloomberg and Reuters, traders say they expect a crop of 3.914 or 3.915 billion bushels, compared to the record 3.927 billion bushels of 2014. Three of the four largest U.S. soybean crops on record have been grown in the past three years, an overpowering rebound from the short supplies and record high prices that followed the 2012 drought. The U.S. soybean supply is expected to more than double in the coming year, holding soybeans at the lowest season-average price in nine years.
Large supplies are good news for foodmakers and consumers since soybeans are used in a huge number of processed foods, from salad dressing to baked goods.
But for growers, the lower prices mean a sharp drop in revenue. This year’s soybean crop would be worth $35.8 billion, down nearly 10 percent from last season and down 17 percent from the 2012/13 marketing year, when the season-average soybean price was a record $14.40 a bushel.
The Crop Production report was projected by traders to confirm the corn crop, at 13.579 billion bushels, as second-largest behind the 14.216 billion bushels grown last year. “By many accounts, corn and soybean producers still have not priced a relatively large portion of the 2015 crops,” said U-I economist Darrel Good at farmdoc daily. “Producers have judged there is potential for higher prices, or at least a small risk of lower prices, as the marketing year progresses.”