U.S. soybean farmers could reap a near-record 3.81 billion bushels of soybeans this year, adding to an ample stockpile and pulling down prices, says economist Darrel Good of U-Illnois. His projection is slightly lower than the USDA’s figure of 3.82 billion bushels. The USDA is likely to update its projections at the Outlook Forum later this week. Good says plantings of 85.5 million acres – a record – “seems a reasonable expectation” considering the smaller winter wheat sowings and the lower cost of growing soybeans compared to corn. With average weather, a yield of 45 bushels an acre is realistic, Good writes at farmdoc daily.
A crop of 3.81 billion bushels would be 4 percent smaller than last year’s record-setting harvest, which is forecast to push the soybean stockpile to an eight-year high. But, Good writes, the inventory is not expected to be quite as large as thought at harvest time, so the average price for this year’s soybean crop won’t be as low as some have suggested. “The futures market currently points to a marketing-year average of $9.70” a bushel, says Good.
The University of Missouri think tank FAPRI says it forecasts “slightly stronger demand for ethanol and livestock feed,” so it ‘”modestly” raised its forecasts for corn, soybean and sorghum prices for the 2015-18 crops. FAPRI says this year’s soybean crop would sell for an average $9.27 a bushel at the farm gate, compared to the $8.76 it projected a month ago. FAPRI says the season-average price would rise to $10.30 a bushel for the 2018 crop. That would exceed the likely price for the 2014 crop, now pegged to $10.20 a bushel, which would be the fifth-highest on record.