Natural swings in earth’s climate patterns “may be responsible for about 30–50 percent of the overall decline” in summer sea ice in the Arctic, says a study out in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The study suggests that if these natural patterns reversed themselves, it could slow the pace of Arctic ice melt and maybe even produce a recovery of some of the ice that’s already been lost. Although lead author Qinghua Ding, of the University of California, Santa Barbara, told Reuters in an email that the impact of mounting man-made greenhouse gas emissions is only set to increase.
“Looking ahead, it is still a matter of when, rather than if, the Arctic will become ice-free in summer,” said Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, who was not involved in the study, according to Reuters. A UN panel of scientists estimated in 2013 that Arctic summer sea ice would disappear completely by mid-century.