The race for control of the House in 2024 begins as a toss-up, with five members of the House Agriculture Committee—three Republicans and two Democrats— on the bubble, said Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The political handicapping newsletter also listed two members of the Appropriations subcommittee on agriculture among the 22 most vulnerable U.S. representatives.
“Big blue states California and New York, where Republicans have made key gains over the past couple of cycles, loom large as Democrats plot a path back to the House majority,” said the Crystal Ball. Redistricting was expected to buoy Republican prospects in North Carolina and Ohio.
House Agriculture members rated as toss-ups for re-election were Republicans Marc Molinaro of New York State, Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon and John Duarte of California, and Democrats Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Maria Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington State.
“We are assuming, for the sake of these ratings, that Rep. Elissa Slotkin … a proven incumbent in a marginal Lansing-based seat, ends up running for U.S. Senate,” said the Crystal Ball. “So her district starts as a Toss-up; we will move her district to Leans Democratic if she unexpectedly runs for re-election instead.”
Molinaro and Duarte won election in 2022 in Democrat-leaning districts, so they are obvious targets in 2024. Gluesenkamp Perez and Chavez-DeRemer “benefitted from flawed general-election opponents who toppled incumbents in primaries. Both rank among the most vulnerable incumbents for their respective sides,” said the newsletter.
Reps. David Valadao, a California Republican, and Mary Kaptur, an Ohio Democrat, also were listed in toss-up races. Both are members of the Appropriations subcommittee on agriculture.