The USDA took a big whack – 9 percent – out of its projected U.S. corn harvest last week and economist David Widmar said on Monday that more adjustments will be forthcoming due to a remarkably rainy and prolonged planting season in the Farm Belt. “The implications of the slow, wet spring will take a while to be fully realized,” wrote Widmar at the Agricultural Economic Insights blog.
Farmers are weeks behind normal in planting corn and soybeans, the two most widely grown crops in the nation. Late-planted crops produce lower yields per acre and millions of acres of land will not be planted at all this year. At a time when corn planting usually is complete, 8 percent of land is yet to be sown and soybean planting is 77 percent complete, with 19 million acres to go, according to the weekly Crop Progress report.
Widmar said the Crop Progress report will become a less reliable guide as planting runs late because it won’t include the land that growers declare as prevented-planting. Instead, it will show how much of the remaining land has been planted.
Economist Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois pointed to an example of that in the Crop Progress report released on Monday. Corn planting in Michigan was listed as 84 percent complete, up by 21 percentage points from a week earlier. Officials in Michigan said the surge was due to “the decision by farmers to opt for prevented plantings,” which can result in a crop insurance payment. In late winter, Michigan farmers said they intended to plant 2.35 million acres of corn. If they cannot plant 20 percent of that ground, it would mean a reduction of 470,000 acres of corn land in Michigan and a smaller fall harvest.
“This is more than a little interesting,” said Irwin on social media, referring to the Michigan report. “First time I have seen something like this in print anywhere from USDA.”
Widmar said the annual Acreage report, issued at the end of June, also may be problematic. The report is based on a survey of growers in the first half of June, so it won’t track the final disposition of a large portion of corn and soybean acreage. “The fate of unplanted acres during the last two weeks of June will be a blind sport for this report.”
In its WASDE report last week, the USDA said this year’s corn crop would be the smallest in four years because some land will not be planted due to saturated fields and because of lower yields on late-planted acreage. There were no changes in USDA’s soybean projections but officials say they will consider revisions in the WASDE report due on July 11.
“Expect additional adjustments” to the corn forecast due to the wet spring, wrote Widmar. “Much remains unknown about the potential impact on soybeans.”