The monsoon rains that are the lifeblood of India’s farmers may be unaffected by forecasts of an El Niño weather pattern at mid-year, a top weather official told Reuters. The rains usually arrive around June 1 at Kerala, a state at the southern tip of India, the second-most populous nation in the world, and retreat by September from Rajastan, which borders Pakistan in northern India, some 2,000 kilometers away.
The director general of India’s Meteorological Department told Reuters that an El Niño, which can reduce rainfall in India, is not expected until after July. Forecasters in the United States, Japan and Australia say a weak El Niño could develop later this year.
Monsoons deliver 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall and are critical for the country’s 263 million farmers who grow rice, sugar cane, corn, cotton and soybeans, says Reuters. India endured back-to-back droughts before receiving average rainfall in 2016. USDA says India will lead the world in cotton production, rank second as a rice-grower and be No. 3 in wheat production during the 2016/17 crop year.