Persistently low commodity prices “might result in a marginal increase in corn acreage and a marginal decrease in soybean acreage” in the coming year, said economist Darrel Good of U-Illinois. With a return to average yields, growers would see smaller harvests than this year, when soybean production set a record and the corn crop was the third-largest ever. The corn yield was the second-highest on record and the soybean yield was nearly 2 percent higher than the record set last year.
“Smaller crops will likely allow some drawdown in corn stocks but soybean stocks would remain historically large,” wrote Good at farmdoc daily. The USDA estimates the soybean stockpile at the end of this marketing year will be the largest in nine years, at 465 million bushels. That would be nearly two-and-a-half times larger than when harvest began this fall.