That’s the line used by Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, referring to the rare defeat of congressional incumbents in a primary election, with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor being this year’s headline example. Kondik says an average of six House incumbents and one senator lose a primary each election cycle. In surveying the states yet to hold primaries, Kondik tabbed two farm-state incumbents worth watching: Rep Scott DesJarlais, Tennessee Republican, and Sen Pat Roberts, Kansas Republican.
DesJarlais “has looked like a sitting duck for the whole cycle” and has a strong challenger in state Sen Jim Tracy, writes Kondik. Among Republican senators Roberts is “probably the most endangered remaining incumbent,” Kondik says. “A few months ago, this race seemed over, but it isn’t with a month to go.”