Presidents-elect tend to nominate their cabinet members before Christmas, giving the Senate the opportunity, almost always exercised in the spirit of comity, to confirm them in time for the Jan. 20 change of administration. The selection of the incoming agriculture secretary typically is announced in the final round — but not always.
President George W. Bush nominated Johanns, then governor of Nebraska, to lead USDA on Dec. 2, 2004, as he re-tooled the cabinet for his second term. In the past 40 years, Dec. 2 — which comes on Friday of this week — is the earliest date for nomination of an agriculture secretary. Nominations have come as late as Christmas Eve, with Dec. 20 as the median date for nominations made at the start of a term.
Governors are a popular choice for USDA chief; the last three secretaries, beginning with Johanns, are active or former governors. Four of the 11 secretaries since 1976 have been U.S. representatives, two were former deputy agriculture secretaries, one was the U.S. trade representative and one was a farmer. Jack Block of Illinois, the last farmer to run USDA, also was the Illinois agriculture director when President Reagan selected him.
The backgrounds of the nominees over the past two generations may provide some guidance for the DC parlor game of cabinet speculation. Aside from Richard Lyng, the former deputy agriculture secretary who succeeded Block at USDA in February 1986, partway through Reagan’s second term, presidents and presidents-elect have passed over Washington insiders and looked outside of the Beltway, except when they decide to elevate a congressman to the cabinet.
Nominees need to be broadly acceptable, which means they cannot be tied too closely to a partisan cause. National leaders of farm groups are similarly disqualified in the view of Washington veterans. One compilation of potential USDA nominees is filled with current and former governors, state agriculture directors, Trump campaign officials, and big farmers.
President-elect Donald Trump, who supported corn ethanol, said little about agriculture policy during the campaign, so he may have more latitude in making a selection. In few cases has the nominee been obvious.
In Johanns, Bush “chose a conservative farm-state governor who will probably win easy confirmation in the Senate,” said the New York Times in a spot-news story. Johanns was offered the job, said the Times, after White House senior adviser Karl Rove “dangled it before Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, a Democrat who has voted with the administration on many issues in the past.”
At the time, Johanns was considered as a possible 2006 challenger to Nelson, so the White House “may have bound itself closer” to Nelson by removing an electoral rival, said the Times. Johanns resigned as agriculture secretary in 2007 to run successfully for the Senate in 2008. He left after one term, in 2014.
Mississippi Rep. Mike Espy was one of four cabinet members announced by Bill Clinton on Dec. 24, 1992, as the Arkansan met his self-imposed deadline of Christmas for the selections. Reagan tabbed Block on Dec. 23, 1980, at the end of a tug-of-war over USDA leadership. Kansas Sen. Bob Dole insisted that a farmer should run USDA. Lyng was the runner-up and became deputy secretary. He left in 1985 to form a consulting company but soon returned as secretary.