The government releases two important reports this week for forecasting U.S. crop production and supplies for the growing season that is just beginning. The Prospective Plantings report is based on a USDA survey of roughly 80,000 farm operators and is the first forecast of spring plantings that is based on farmers’ intentions, as opposed to projections by USDA or private analysis drawn from commodity market conditions and historical planting patterns.
Traders surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg say they expect farmers to sow nearly 83.1 million acres of soybeans, the second-largest acreage ever, and just under 90 million acres of corn, ending a three-year decline in corn acreage. By comparison, the USDA projected corn plantings of 90 million acres and soybeans at 82.5 million acres in late February. So traders expect roughly 600,000 more acres of soybeans than the USDA, and a fractionally smaller amount of land planted to corn.
The differences are minor. In either case, the United States is heading for massive harvests this fall, assuming normal weather and yields. The corn and soybean crops would be the third-largest on record — 13.2 billion bushels of corn and 3.84 billion bushels of soybeans — with the result that corn and soybean supplies would be the largest ever. The USDA says this year’s corn crop will fetch the lowest average price in a decade, and the soybeans price will be the lowest in nine years.
Along with the Prospective Plantings report on Thursday, USDA will release the quarterly Grains Stocks report, important for judging how last year’s massive crops, including the second record soybean crop in a row, are being consumed. Traders expect the wheat and soybean stockpiles will be 15 percent larger last March. Bloomberg says the trade estimate for corn stocks would be the largest in 29 years for March 1, halfway through the marketing year.
Prospective Plantings kicks off a parade of USDA reports on this year’s crops. The first of the weekly Crop Progress reports will be released next Monday and will continue through harvest. The May crop report will make the first estimate of the winter wheat crop, the first crop to be harvested. On the same day as the May crop report, the USDA will project the size of the corn and soybean crops.