Two countries that account for one-third of U.S. farm exports, China and Mexico, are the main reasons for a slightly higher forecast for ag exports this fiscal year, says USDA. Exports are now estimated at $134 billion, up $1 billion from the August estimate, with sales to China and Mexico up $300 million apiece.
China is the top market and Mexico is No. 3. President-elect Donald Trump says he wants to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada, the No. 2 buyer of U.S. farm exports, and that he would put high tariffs on Chinese-made imports.
“A change in the U.S. trade relationship with China and Mexico is of particular concern for agricultural competitiveness,” said USDA in a quarterly “Outlook” report. “Together, these two countries were the destination for an average of almost one-third of total U.S. agricultural exports from 2013-15. China alone was the destination of roughly 60 percent of U.S. soybean exports, on average, during this period.”
China is forecast to import $21.8 billion worth of U.S. farm goods this year, and Mexico is expected to import $18.3 billion.
“Soybean export volumes continue to set records, raising the soybean forecast $500 million,” said USDA. Some 55.8 million tonnes would be exported this year, up from 54.1 million tonnes in 2016. The sales would be worth $21.7 billion this year.
USDA also revised its estimate of farm exports in fiscal 2016, ending on Sept. 30, raising the tally to $129.7 billion, up $5.2 billion. Larger soybean sales were a major factor, up $1.435 billion from the previous estimate.