Prospects for “historically large” world wheat supplies are likely to result in “a challenging situation for U.S. wheat exports and prices later in 2014,” say economists Dan O’Brien and Mykel Taylor of Kansas State University. “But possible threats such as a developing El Nino weather pattern and dry conditions in the Black Sea Region merit attention.” In a blog, O’Brien and Taylor say they expect slightly larger U.S. wheat exports of 950 million bushels and a smaller, but ample, carry-over of 549 million bushels at the end of the 2014/15 marketing year than does USDA.
The government says this year’s wheat crop will sell for the second-highest average price ever, $7 a bushel. This year’s crop is forecast to be 9 percent smaller than in 2013. The record average price for wheat at the farm gate is $7.77 a bushel for the 2012 crop.