“The Senate race in Kansas just got crazy” is the headline on Nate Silver’s analysis at FiveThirtyEight. Orman has raised more campaign money than Taylor “and probably had more momentum,” says Silver. He says the race is a toss-up, “But it’s also a totally wild guess.” Orman’s platform is little known and Roberts, while having low approval ratings, is part of the dominant political party.
Political site Sabato’s Crystal Ball revised its rating of the race to “leans Republican” from the previous “likely Republican.” Two weeks ago, Kansas was “Safe Republican.” Write Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik, “Our Kansas sources stressed two things Wednesday evening. First, Republicans are absolutely furious at Roberts for turning in such a clumsy, second-rate primary performance and allowing this contest to linger in a year when every Senate battle could determine control of the chamber. Second, these same sources — when pressed — believed that ultimately Roberts would be able to fight off the challenge with enough outside assistance.”