Like U.S. agriculture overall, 40 percent of California’s agricultural exports go to nations that are part of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade bloc, say three UC-Davis economists. In a newsletter, they say the agreement, if approved, “would lower import barriers and facilitate export for many of California’s significant agricultural exports to the Pacific Rim nations – most importantly in Japan.”
Canada, Japan and Mexico are the biggest markets among TPP nations and Japan, which buys 21 percent of California farm goods sold in the TPP zone, “is clearly the biggest market for which free trade is not already operative.”
Dairy is by far the largest California export to TPP countries. Market openings for dairy are “quite limited” because Japan and Canada will maintain quotas on most products. “Gradual elimination of the 24 percent cheese tariff and gradual expansion of quantitative limits for other products in Japan are the major import access improvements for dairy,” write economists Dan Sumner, Hyunok Lee and William Matthews.
They say Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam will eliminate tariffs on tree nuts such as almonds, as well as tariffs on citrus fruit. Beef, poultry, hay and vegetable exports also could expand around the Pacific Rim, they said. “Japan is already a large market for many of these products and will eliminate high tariffs such as the 38.5 percent tariff on beef.”