The campaign in Iowa to succeed Democrat Tom Harkin, a Senate Agriculture Committee member, gained a lot of attention in the past week. Handicapping of the race ranged from “leans Democratic” to a toss-up. Over the weekend, the Washington Post’s “Election Lab” said its model shows “78 percent chance of GOP win” – a much stronger reading than other forecasts. The Post says its forecasting model is based on public opinion polls, fundraising and experience in electoral office.
FiveThirtyEight put odds of a Democratic win in Iowa at around 60 percent last Tuesday. On Thursday, Politico said the race “leans Democratic” while at Roll Call, analyst Stuart Rothenberg said Iowa “looks like a toss-up” and was “(i)n something of a surprise, the sixth best Republican opportunity” to pick up a Democratic seat. Pollster said its tracking model puts the race at Ernst 43.1 percent and Democratic nominee Bruce Braley 43 percent.