Republican Joni Ernst’s folksiness seems to be paying off in the retail politics of Iowa, says the weekly political tip sheet Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in rating the Senate race in the Hawkeye State as “leans Republican,” vs the previous “Toss-up.” “With a month to go, she seems to be staying out of trouble and the Republican lean of this year’s mid-term combined with [Democrat Bruce] Braley’s much-derided campaign suggests to us that Ernst really is leading here.” Ernst has led or tied Braley in three of the last four polls listed on Pollster, including a 6-point lead in the Des Moines Register poll.
The Crystal Ball shifted its rating for the Senate race in Kansas to “Toss-up” from the previous “Leans Republican.” Independent Greg Orman was the leader in five straight polls over Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, potentially the next chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. Roberts is hobbled by division within Republicans, the dominant party. The Crystal Ball says “former three-term Sen. Nancy Kassebaum Baker, a moderate Republican, declined to appear in an ad for Roberts.”