Iowans have not defeated a Senate incumbent since 1984 but Democrat Theresa Greenfield could break that streak in her challenge to Republican Joni Ernst, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday. The political newsletter said the race “leans Democratic,” after being a toss-up since early August, and it listed Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a House Agriculture Committee member, as “likely” to win re-election, compared to its previous rating of “safe.”
“Iowa may have replaced North Carolina as the race likeliest to decide Senate control, although North Carolina remains a very viable Democratic target,” said the newsletter. When she ran for the Senate in 2014, Ernst stressed her childhood on an Iowa farm, memorably vowing in a TV ad to “make ’em squeal” in Washington. But she flubbed a question about the break-even price for soybeans during a digital debate last week, while Greenfield nailed the same question about corn.
“The soybeans gaffe seems symptomatic of Ernst’s re-election effort,” said the Crystal Ball. Ernst is running as a Trump loyalist, rather than the motorcycle-riding upstart of 2014. A businesswoman, Greenfield, who grew up on a farm, has a lead of 4.8 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics tracking poll. The Cook Political Report listed the Iowa race as a toss-up.
LaMalfa, a Republican, is running for his fifth term and is in a rematch with Democrat Audrey Denney. She raised three times as much money as LaMalfa in the third quarter of this year. LaMalfa won by 10 points in the right-of-center district in 2018.