India is drawing down its government-held wheat reserves more rapidly than expected as it tries to control inflation, said the monthly Wheat Outlook on Monday. USDA analysts lowered by 2.1 million metric tons their estimate of India’s wheat supply at the end of this marketing year.
“If this forecast is realized, India’s ending stocks will have declined more than 20 million metric tons from the peak of 27.8 million metric tons in 2020/21” — a three-year span, said the USDA report. The USDA estimated 2023/24 ending wheat stocks of 6.9 million tons, compared to the 9 million tons it estimated a month ago.
The downturn in India was the biggest factor in a contraction of global wheat stocks, to their lowest level in eight years, 258.3 million tons, said the Wheat Outlook. “[Indian] government stocks estimates implied a stronger pace of use than previously expected,” it said. “Global stocks have slipped 39 million metric tons from the peak of 297 million metric tons in 2019/20.”
India sharply restricted rice exports last fall with the aim of holding down domestic prices. India is one of the world’s largest rice growers and often is the largest exporter.