With two screaming exceptions, it’s becoming safer and safer electorally to be a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee in a farm bill year. Five of the 10 committee members facing the voters on Nov. 6 are rated as “safe” for a new term, with Sen. Debbie Stabenow, the senior Democrat on the panel, awarded that rating on Thursday by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political analysis site.
Another committee member, Democrat Sherrod Brown of Ohio, “might not be far behind in making that move as well,” said the Crystal Ball. At present, Brown is rated as “likely” to win. A second-term Democrat, Brown is challenged by Rep. Jim Renacci, a Republican in his fourth term representing a district in northeastern Ohio. Stabenow, in her third term, has a huge fundraising advantage over Republican John James, an Army veteran, in Michigan.
Besides Stabenow, the Agriculture Committee members listed as “safe” are Democrats Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York state and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska. Listed as “likely” victors are Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi and Democrat Tina Smith of Minnesota; both are appointees.
Two panelists are in races too close to call: Democrats Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana. Both were elected by narrow margins in 2012 and both are running in states that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump in 2016.
By an electoral quirk, 10 of the 21 members of the Agriculture Committee are on the ballot this year, including eight of its 10 Democrats.