The government will make its first estimate of the winter wheat crop and project the corn and soybean harvests in a pair of reports on Tuesday that traditionally rank among the most important of the year. They mark the moment when the USDA turns its attention to the new crops and when the key question for 2014’s crops becomes the size of the stockpile when the marketing year ends.
Traders expect the USDA to forecast this year’s winter wheat crop, which is nearing maturity, at 7 percent larger than last year’s drought-limited crop. Analysts say the soybean crop could be the second-largest ever and the corn crop could be the third-largest, based on normal yields and farmers’ plans to plant a record amount of soybean land and scale back slightly on corn plantings.
Corn and soybeans are the most widely planted U.S. crops; they account for roughly half of the land sown to the three dozen “principal crops.” Bumper crops would mean another year of ample supplies and comparatively low commodity prices, a boon for foodmakers, processors and livestock producers, but stressful for farmers. They also could hold down inflation at the grocery store.
The winter wheat estimate will be based on a survey of 13,000 operators as well as USDA spot checks of fields. The margin of error is about 12 percent. The corn and soybean projections assume normal weather and yields, and incorporate a March survey of planting intentions. The May projections, made four months before harvest and before planting is complete, have a 15 percent margin of error for soybeans and 27 percent for corn. The margins of error become smaller as crops mature and are harvested.
The winter wheat estimate will appear in the monthly Crop Production report. The corn and soybean projections will be carried in the companion WASDE report. USDA will make its first estimates of the fall harvest in August.