The U.S. soybean crop could be as much as 6 percent smaller than now forecast if yields drop slightly or if plantings turn out to be smaller than reported, say projections presented at a Kansas State University risk-management conference. If plantings are 1 million acres smaller than USDA estimates, the crop could be as “small” as 3.574 billion bushels – 242 million bushels less than forecast by USDA but still a record.
Production in that range could boost the farm-gate price to $12.55, more than $2 a bushel higher than now expected and the third-highest season-average price on record. Incomplete reports to USDA from farmers about planted area this year have prompted some analysts to say soybeans plantings are over-stated by 1 million acres or more.
A private consultant based in Brazil, Carlos Cogo, says Brazilian farmers will expand soybean plantings by 3.5 percent in the 2014/15 season, to 7.7 million acres, says AgroSouth News. Cogo says soybeans offer higher profitability than corn or cotton, the other summer crops. AgroSouth quotes Cogo as saying, “Farmers are not likely to change their plans for the 2014/2015 crop because a big part of the inputs were already purchased.”