The long run of market prices that began in 2006 lured farmers to expand plantings of corn and soybeans by 20 million acres. Most of the increase came from the Plains states and the South, say economists John Newton and Todd Keuthe of U-Illinois. Writing at farmdoc daily, they say, “Higher returns associated with corn and soybean production generally led to acreage shifts out of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and wheat acres in the Northern Plains, and out of cotton, peanuts, and rice in the Southeast and Southern Plains.”
The USDA projects smaller corn and soybean plantings this year. Private analysts generally agree with the department about corn, but some say soybean acreage could be larger than the USDA believes. Newton and Keuthe say the western Corn Belt, which now stretches into North Dakota, and the South are the areas to watch. “It is in those areas … that acreage moving out of corn and soybeans into another commodity is most likely to occur if a period of low grain prices persists.”