The one-two punch of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf coast and Hurricane Irma in the Southeast reduced the U.S. cotton crop by more than 600,000 bales, or 3 percent, said the USDA in its monthly crop report. The USDA lowered its estimate of the harvest in Texas, the No. 1 cotton state, and in No. 2 Georgia, down by 300,000 bales apiece.
“Production is reduced (by) 643,000 bales, largely in Texas and Georgia,” said the companion WASDE report. Even so, the crop of 21.1 million bales would be the fourth-largest on record and 23 percent larger than the 2016 crop, thanks to larger plantings and the second-highest yield per acre ever. Yields in Texas and Georgia were forecast notably lower following the hurricanes.
Texas grows more than 40 percent of the U.S. cotton crop and is forecast to produce 9.03 million bales this year, compared to 9.3 million bales before the hurricane. Georgia’s harvest, forecast for 2.4 million bales, is 11 percent lower after Hurricane Irma.
Jared Whitaker, University of Georgia cotton economist, said early this week that it was difficult to assess losses “but a 10 percent loss across the entire state is very realistic and is likely what occurred, with losses much higher in some fields,” reported the Tifton Gazette. At 10 percent, losses would equal $100 million for the state. Whitaker said the estimate could rise to 20 percent, or more, once all damage is assessed.
With a slightly smaller U.S. crop, USDA said cotton exports would be 400,000 bales smaller than previously estimated, partly due to strong competition in the world market. The United States will have a nearly a four-month stockpile of cotton, the largest inventory in eight years.