Drug-resistant pathogens could throttle meat, dairy, and egg production and cause millions of additional human deaths by 2050 if the superbugs are not controlled, said researchers on Thursday. They called for increased funding worldwide to prevent the spread of antimicrobial resistance.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could reduce livestock production by an amount equivalent to the needs of 746 million people by mid-century — or as many as 2 billion people under a more severe scenario — if action is not taken now, said the scientists. Their analysis was produced in three reports, known as the EcoAMR series, as the United Nations convened its first high-level meeting on antimicrobial resistance since 2016.
“The threat of drug-resistant infections to human health is widely recognized, but the impact of AMR on the health of animals, our environment, and our economy cannot be overstated,” said Emmanuelle Soubeyran, director general of the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH). “On top of the drastic human death toll, drug-resistant pathogens can also severely impact animal health and welfare. For the first time, we have an idea of exactly what is at stake unless the global community takes urgent action now.”
Experts from WOAH and four other entities produced the EcoAMR reports, using data from 204 countries to forecast the impact of antimicrobial resistance on mortality, healthcare costs, food security, and the global economy. If action is not taken, they said, drug resistance could cause annual losses of up to $1.7 trillion to the global economy by 2050, and the spread of resistant pathogens to people from livestock could cost as much as $5.2 trillion.
Conversely, each investment of $1 now to curb drug resistance would bring $28 in reduced healthcare costs and higher economic performance in the future, said WOAH.
Antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites develop a tolerance for medicines such as antibiotics. Illnesses caused by these so-called superbugs are harder to treat, and infections spread more easily.
The EcoAMR reports estimated that roughly 39 million people could die because of drug-resistant pathogens by 2050, with losses highest among the elderly and in low- and middle-income countries. A study published last week in the medical journal The Lancet said deaths from AMR could double, to 10 million a year, by 2050. Mortality would be highest in South Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, and among people age 70 and older.
In an effort to preserve the efficacy of the drugs, the Food and Drug Administration bars the use of medically important antimicrobials to encourage weight gain in meat-bearing animals, including cattle, hogs, and poultry. It also requires veterinary approval to use the medicines to treat or prevent disease in livestock. The agency collects data on annual sales of medically important antimicrobials intended for use in livestock, and on Wednesday, it awarded $600,000 to three projects that would collect, analyze, and report on antimicrobial use on farm animals, a more direct measurement.