That’s the question, and headline, at FiveThirtyEight for a look at bias in polling in Senate campaigns. Based on 147 publicly released polls since 2002, analyst Harry Enten says polls conducted by a partisan group averaged a 4.25-point bias toward their candidate in the final month before the election. “In our sample, Republican-sponsored polls were no more accurate or less accurate than Democratic-sponsored surveys,” wrote Enten. The bias is 7 points when the sponsoring side is losing and 1 point when its candidate is winning.
The news hook for the analysis was the Senate race in Arkansas, where a recent poll by a group supporting a higher minimum wage showed Democrat Mark Pryor with a 10-point lead. A poll released on Tuesday by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee gave Pryor a 3-point lead over Republican Tom Cotton, 48-45, with 7 pct undecided. Pryor chairs the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on agriculture.
Cotton raised more money than Pryor did in the first quarter of this year, says Politico after taking a look at campaign finance reports. Cotton listed $1.35 mln in donations vs Pryor”s $1.22 mln. Pryor spent more in the three-month period but ended with more money in the bank, $4.4 mln, than Cotton, who reported $2.7 mln in cash on hand.