Rep. Collin Peterson, a Blue Dog Democrat, “is a good fit for his district, but outliers like him have become less and less common,” said the political website Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Thursday, listing him as a toss-up for election to a 16th term. The Minnesota district was initially rated as “leans Democratic,” but the House Agriculture chairman is facing a significant challenge from a strong field of Republican contenders.
On Labor Day, former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach announced she would run for the Republican nomination, “a likely indication that national Republicans will push harder in the district than they have the last couple of cycles,” wrote Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Crystal Ball. “Peterson, meanwhile, could decide to retire, although getting targeted by Republicans could also inspire Peterson to double down and compete harder, as he did the last time national Republicans spent heavily in the district (2014).”
Peterson’s margins of victory have declined in recent elections. Voters in the district, which covers the western one-third of Minnesota, voted overwhelmingly for President Trump in 2016, giving him a 31-point margin over Democrat Hillary Clinton.