As trade relationships with China, Mexico, and Canada remain precarious, U.S. hog farmers are increasingly worried about the health of their export markets. Pork exports have risen, reaching a peak of nearly $6 billion in 2017. But as farmers’ reliance on exports grows, the threat of unstable trade relationships looms larger.
About a quarter of all pork produced in the United States is exported. The top importers of U.S. pork are Mexico, China, Japan, and Canada. Three of those countries are currently in the middle of contentious trade negotiations with the United States, due to President Trump’s renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement and his decision to apply tariffs to imported Chinese solar panels and washing machines. Farmers worry that if the U.S. backs away from NAFTA or if China decides to retaliate with tariffs on imported products from this country, their bottom line could be seriously threatened.
Hog inventory in the United States is the highest it has been since 1943, topping 73 million animals in 2017. All those hogs produced about 25 billion pounds of pork. Chinese pork production is more than four times as high as U.S. pork production, but China’s input costs are also significantly higher.