World meat production will decline for the first time in two decades because of the devastating epidemic of African swine fever in China, the world’s largest pork producer, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization on Thursday. The disease, which does not harm people but is almost always fatal to hogs, has also struck Vietnam and South Korea and could kill a quarter of all the hogs on earth, according to the World Organization for Animal Health.
With the world’s largest swine herd, China usually accounts for half of global pork output. But its production will plunge by 20 percent this year due to African swine fever, said the FAO in its annual Food Outlook report.
The FAO forecast world meat production of 335 million tonnes this year, down by 1 percent from 2018. In a typical year, pork provides more than a third of the world’s meat, poultry 39 percent, and beef 21 percent.
China’s State Council called for stronger efforts to ensure the supply of key farm produce and keep consumer food prices stable, reported the Xinhua news agency. In an executive meeting, the council “urged efforts to take multi-pronged steps to restore hog production at a faster pace, by removing unjustifiable farming bans across the country,” said Xinhua. “A bumper harvest of corn in north China will help better ensure pig feed supply for pig farming provinces in south China.” The meeting also urged increased production of poultry, beef, and mutton.
The World Organization for Animal Health, known by its French abbreviation OIE, estimated that up to 100 million hogs were lost in China due to swine fever and efforts to contain the disease, said the Guardian. “The severity of the crisis means that global pork prices are rising. … U.S. pork sales to China have doubled, while European prices have reached a six-year high.” An OIE official said last week that African swine fever was “the biggest threat to any commercial livestock of our lifetime.”
The FAO Food Outlook forecast that global wheat and corn production would rise in 2019, while rice production would dip below the record set in 2018. Oilseed production, which includes soybeans, is expected to fall for the first time in three years.
The Food Outlook is available here.