Cotton production is forecast to grow by 5 percent worldwide this year, the second expansion in two years due to market prices that are far above average, said the International Cotton Advisory Committee. In a monthly update, the intergovernmental body estimated the 2017/18 crop at 24.01 million tonnes, up by 1.1 million tonnes from the 2016/17 crop.
Market prices are forecast to average 81 cents per pound this year and 78 cents for sales in 2017/18, said the ICAC, “well above the long-term average of 70 cents per pound.” Burdened by a huge stockpile, China is expected to hold steady on cotton production in 2017/18, so the upturn will come from the other big producers of the world, such as the United States, where the harvest is forecast to rise by 12 percent from last year based on larger plantings.
China is expected to increase its cotton imports by 10 percent, to 1.06 million tonnes, during the current marketing year, the first increase in five years, “though any further increase is limited by the import quota,” said the ICAC. Sales from government-owned reserves will allow mill use to hold steady at 7.7 million tonnes a year despite a smaller domestic crop of 4.9 million tonnes in 2016/17.