Some $10 million could be spent on the U.S. House race between Rep Steve Southerland and Democrat Gwen Graham in the Florida panhandle, says WTXL-TV in Tallahassee. Southerland, a conservative Republican, proposed the largest cuts in food stamps in a generation during debate on the new farm law. Southerland has been listed among the most vulnerable members of the House.
The Second House District, including the state capital of Tallahassee, “leans conservative but registered Democrats out-number Republicans 51 percent to 31 percent,” says the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel. It quotes political science professor Daniel Smith as saying Graham is “a solid campaigner and “is the Democrats’ best shot at upsetting a Republican year.” Graham is the daughter of Bob Graham, former Florida governor and U.S. senator.
The race “leans Democratic,” said the political site Sabato’s Crystal Ball, vs its previous rating as a toss-up. It says Southerland is one of the two Republican incumbents in greatest peril of defeat on Tuesday. “Southerland…has also made some silly mistakes,” said the Crystal Ball, referring to a men-only fundraiser scheduled by Southerland, “but he faces a very strong challenger in Gwen Graham.” GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried the district in 2012 “so partisanship could save” Southerland, it concludes.
Races involving two Democrats on the House Agriculture Committee, Bill Enyart of Southern Illinois and Rick Nolan of northeastern Minnesota, are rated as “leans Republican” by the Crystal Ball, vs the previous “toss-up.” Enyart, “whose district is trending GOP,” is the second-most vulnerable House Democrat, according to the Crystal Ball. Nolan rates as one of the best-positioned among endangered Democrats but “even on Democratic turf,” a strong challenger – wealthy businessman Stewart Mills – might win.