Two Republicans on the House Agriculture Committee, Jeff Denham of California and Don Bacon of Nebraska, are toss-ups for re-election following their votes for the GOP-drafted healthcare bill, said the political newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The races, previously rated as “leans Republican,” are in districts where Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton ran well, according to the newsletter.
“This weeks’ changes align our ratings with our overall belief that the House is in play, even while noting that the true level of danger Republicans face is as yet unclear,” wrote managing editor Kyle Kondik. The Crystal Ball changed ratings for 18 races involving GOP incumbents. Clinton carried Denham’s district in the Modesto area and narrowly lost Bacon’s in the Omaha area. “If the AHCA is a liability for Republicans next year these are some of the members who could find themselves in a perilous position, and even if health care is not the defining issue next year they still should be major Democratic targets,” said the Crystal Ball.
It also changed its outlook for John Faso, another Republican on House Ag, to ”leans Republican” from the previous “likely Republican.” Trump over-performed in the upstate New York district, said the Crystal Ball. If Democrats have a shot at a House majority, Faso’s district is one of the districts where they need gains “even though they are filled with the white working-class voters who have been trending away from Democrats in recent years.”
In Alabama, former U.S. attorney Doug Jones is “the first prominent Democrat” to enter the race for the Senate seat formerly held by Attorney General Jess Sessions. Republican Luther Strange, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, was appointed to the seat, with a special election set for Dec 12. Party primaries are Aug 15. “Jones, who was U.S. attorney from 1997 to 2001, is perhaps best known for prosecuting Ku Klux Klan members for the 1963 Birmingham church bombing that killed four little girls,” said Associated Press.