Drought will persist into the winter in the South and expand in the wheat-growing southern Plains, says the National Weather Service in a forecast running through Feb. 28. Some 30 percent of the nation already is in drought, and the past month has been very warm and dry east of the Rocky Mountains.
The weather service says a weak and short-lived La Niña weather pattern will play a role in cold-season conditions. La Niña favors drier and warmer winters in the southern United States and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern states.
Already established in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle, drought is forecast to expand to cover Oklahoma, the Texas panhandle and eastern Texas. Kansas is the top state for winter wheat, the bulk of which is grown in the central and southern Plains. Winter wheat accounts for two-thirds of U.S. wheat production; the rest is durum and spring wheat.
“Time is running out for better crop establishment this autumn,” said World Grain. Warm weather has kept winter wheat, which is planted in the fall and harvested in the spring, from going into winter dormancy. With little relief expected in the near term, “there is potential for a bout of recovery in the spring. The situation will be quite tenuous but hope is not lost.”
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Colorado grew a combined 798.9 million bushels of winter wheat this year, 48 percent of the U.S. total, says USDA’s annual Small Grains report. Two years ago, drought limited the harvest in the four states to 450.8 million bushels, one-third of U.S. output.
Because the main growing season has ended in most of the country, drought has the most immediate impact in many regions on livestock producers, who need forage and water for their stock. The South has been in drought for months
While drought was forecast to wane in western New York State, abnormally dry weather would persist in New England, eastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. “A few well-placed Nor’easters during the next few months, before the ground freezes, would be extremely beneficial toward decreasing drought in this region,” said the weather agency.
Heavier than usual precipitation was expected in the eastern Corn Belt and in much of the Northwest. Conditions would improve in Montana, Oregon and north-central California. “In contrast, 4-5 consecutive years of drought in Southern California and unfavorable winter precipitation odds point toward persistence there,” said forecasters.