Based on conditions at the start of August, the USDA forecast the largest U.S. cotton crop in 11 years, 20.6 million bales, but the estimate “is far from a certainty” after Hurricane Harvey hit Texas, the largest cotton-growing state, says an American Farm Bureau Federation analysis. “Severe flooding related to Hurricane Harvey is likely to have impacted major cotton producing regions.”
“Following the excessive rainfall and high winds, crop conditions are likely to deteriorate,” says the AFBF Market Intel release. Rain, wind and flood damage could prevent growers from harvesting some of their cotton fields. At the moment, such “abandonment” is forecast at half the U.S. usual level. “Should abandonment approach the 5- and 10-year average levels of 16 percent, the size of the cotton crop would be reduced.” Texas grows four of every 10 bales of U.S. cotton but less than 8 percent of global production, which limits the impact of a catastrophic storm on world supplies.
Cotton marketing economist John Robinson of Texas A&M, said a reported 300,000-400,000 bales of cotton were “still on the stalk in the affected region” when Harvey made landfall over the weekend. Some of the cotton was destroyed by the storm and some may be too damaged to salvage. Damage to cotton warehouses and their contents has yet to be tallied. “The loss of 300,000 bales does not translate to more than a penny or so impact” on cotton prices, said Robinson. Before Harvey, USDA estimated the Texas cotton crop at 8.8 million bales.
Harvey created a 100-mile swath of destruction from Corpus Christi to Port Lavaca, says Southwest Farm Press. “Agricultural interests from the coast to nearly 130 miles inland suffered from wind damage and heavy flooding from unprecedented downpours that left as much as 15 feet of water on some fields and roads, stranding, scattering and destroying livestock on many farms … Cotton growers in Louisiana are now at risk of damages to fields and crops as they brace for a storm that will rack up three landfalls since forming in the Caribbean early last week.”
The ports of Corpus Christi and Houston “may shut down completely for an extended period of time, delaying wheat shipments and forcing grain elevators to suspend operations through most of South and Southeast Texas,” said Farm Press. “Port authorities in New Orleans and transport operations along the Mississippi may also be affected by the storm in the coming hours and days ahead. Corn and soybean exports could be adversely affected in the coming weeks as a result of storm delays and damages.”