Americans are headed for the fourth year in a row of lower-than-normal increases in food prices, according to the USDA’s Food Price Outlook. The monthly report estimated that prices will rise by just 1.5 percent this year; the last time prices increased at or exceeded the long-run average of 2.4 percent a year was in 2014.
The food inflation rate includes restaurant food and purchases at supermarkets. Grocery prices are forecast to rise by a nearly imperceptible 1 percent this year, while “food away from home” prices would increase by 2.5 percent.
Separately, the largest U.S. farm group said supplies for a Fourth of July cookout would cost fractionally less than a year ago. The American Farm Bureau Federation said its grocery list to feed 10 people — burgers, hot dogs, potato salad, baked beans, buns, and so forth — totaled $55.07, based on spot checks of stores in 28 states. “We are seeing record meat and dairy production in 2018, so that has also influenced retail prices and so, for consumers, this year’s Fourth of July cookout costs will be slightly less than last year’s,” said AFBF economist John Newton.