The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, less than 1 percent a year, said the United Nations on Monday, with the population forecast to pass the milestone of 8 billion on Nov. 15. India was expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation next year, with the United States challenged for third place by Nigeria by mid-century.
Overall, the world population would swell to 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050 before plateauing at 10.4 billion in the 2080s through 2100, said the World Population Prospects 2022 report. Five years ago, the population forecast was 11.2 billion in 2100.
A slowdown in population growth would reduce the strain on natural resources somewhat. Food and ag leaders speak frequently of the vast amounts of food that would be needed for a world growing in numbers while mitigating the environmental impact of agriculture. A meta-analysis in the journal Nature last July said global food demand would rise by 30-62 percent from 2010-2050.
Two-thirds of the world lives in nations where the lifetime fertility rate has fallen below the natural replacement rate, said the World Population Prospects 2022 report. Slower growth would give some nations breathing space for accelerated economic growth per capita, a potential “demographic dividend” for sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia and Latin America. Some 61 countries or areas will experience population declines of at least 1 percent over the next three decades.
At the same time, eight countries would contribute more than half of the population growth through 2050: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
“Today, the world’s population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century,” said the UN report. “The global human population will reach 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion people in 1950, adding 1 billion people since 2010 and 2 billion since 1998.”
Population growth since 1950 was fastest in the early 1960s, when it was 2.1 percent a year, sparking fears of famine in the future. But population growth has slowed due to reduced fertility.
“In 2020, and for the first time since 1950, the rate of population growth fell below 1 per cent per year and it is projected to continue to slow in the next few decades and through the end of this century,” said the report.
India’s population, now 1.415 billion, has grown rapidly since 861 million in 1990 and was forecast to become the world’s largest in 2023 and to house 1.668 billion people in 2050. China, now No. 1 with 1.426 billion, was estimated to have 1.317 citizens in 2050. “China is expected to experience an absolute decline in its population as early as 2023,” said the report.
The United States was third in population, with 337 million at present, and forecast to grow to 375 million in 2050. Nigeria, with a current population of 216 million, would reach 375 million in 2050, to tie the U.S. total. Pakistan would be the fifth-largest nation in 2050, as it is now.
Life expectancy fell due to the pandemic, to 71 years at birth in 2021 from 72.8 years at birth in 2019. Estimates of life expectancy fell by more than four years in Bolivia, Botswana, Lebanon, Mexico, Oman and Russia.
The home page for World Population Prospects 2022 is available here.